The physical route
- China (Xi'an, Chongqing, Chengdu) → Khorgos / Altynkol dry port (gauge change 1435 mm ↔ 1520 mm).
- Kazakhstan rail: Altynkol → Aktogay → Beyneu → Aktau or Kuryk port (Caspian).
- Caspian crossing: Aktau / Kuryk → Baku-Alat (Azerbaijan). RoRo, container vessels, or rail wagons on ferry.
- Azerbaijan-Georgia rail: Alat → Tbilisi → Poti / Batumi Black Sea ports (BTK line via Kars for direct Türkiye rail).
- Onward: RoRo to Constanta, Burgas or Istanbul; direct BTK rail to Kars → Mersin / Izmir.
Realistic door-to-door transit times, 2026
| Origin → Destination | Modal mix | Transit (days) | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Xi'an → Istanbul | Block train + RoRo Caspian + BTK rail | 18–24 | Best case with pre-booked slot at Aktau |
| Shanghai → Almaty | Sea to Bandar Abbas + road, OR rail via Khorgos | 22–28 (rail) | Khorgos gauge change is the constant bottleneck |
| Istanbul → Almaty | TIR / road via Georgia + Baku + Caspian ferry | 12–16 | Ferry schedule is 3× per week, not daily |
| Istanbul → Almaty (rail) | BTK → Alat → Aktau → Almaty | 15–20 | Feasible from 20-ft containers upward |
| Frankfurt → Almaty | Rail to Kars + BTK reverse + Caspian | 22–28 | Competitive vs. Northern Corridor since 2022 |
The three choke points to plan around
1. Caspian ferry berth capacity
Aktau and Kuryk together handle roughly 6–8 sailings per week to Baku. Wagon-on-ferry sailings are limited to specific vessels (the two Azerbaijani-flag RoRo units and a rotating Kazakh fleet). Waiting times at the Aktau berth can spike to 5–7 days in October–November when grain and metal exports peak. The mitigation is a pre-booked wagon slot with the Kazakhstan Temir Zholy KTZ Express agent — not a spot booking.
2. Gauge change at Khorgos / Altynkol
Every container coming from China changes rail gauge here. Nominal capacity is ~28,000 TEU per month; realistic sustained throughput has been around 22,000 TEU. During Chinese New Year and the National Day holiday the yard fills up because outbound flow stops for a week. Building a 10-day buffer into contract lead times around those two windows is standard practice.
3. Georgian rail — single-track sections
The Tbilisi → Poti line is 55% single-track. Priority is given to passenger and Georgian domestic freight; foreign-origin block trains routinely wait 12–18 hours in Rustavi yard. Batumi as an alternative discharge port avoids some of this — but Batumi's dedicated container terminal capacity is lower.
Cost delta versus alternatives
| Corridor | Indicative USD / 40ft, 2026 | Transit | Political risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Middle Corridor (TITR) | 6,800 – 8,500 | 18–24 d | Low |
| Northern Corridor (Russia) | 3,900 – 5,200 | 14–18 d | High (sanctions exposure) |
| Deep-sea via Suez to Constanta | 3,200 – 4,400 | 35–45 d | Low |
| Southern Corridor (Iran transit) | 5,200 – 6,800 | 22–30 d | Medium (payment friction) |